Hospitalizations in OC continue downward trend as COVID deaths rise

Orange County’s COVID-19 hospitalizations have dropped again, continuing a three-week downward trend, but a dozen more COVID deaths have been logged as January’s death toll nears the peak of the Delta variant-fueled summer surge.

The number of COVID-positive hospital patients in the county dropped from 818 Thursday to 746 Friday, with the number of intensive care patients falling from 147 to 134.

OC has 17.4% of its ICU beds available, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency. Local health officials get concerned when the level falls below 20%. The county has 61% of its ventilators available.

Of those hospitalized, 84% are unvaccinated and 87% in ICU are not inoculated, the OCHCA said.

“The key numbers keep going down, which is good,” Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist and UC Irvine professor of population health and disease prevention, told City News Service.

“Hospitalizations are still above the Delta wave, so it’s still nothing to sneeze at, but it’s moving in the right direction, which is all we can ask for,” Noymer said.

“Things are moving in the right direction partly because these things have a natural cycle and we’re on the downward cycle of it,” Noymer said. “It’s also partly because people took it seriously and masked up, and continuing that is still on the menu. … Masking is still prudent.”

Noymer said he does not expect Super Bowl parties will trigger another reversal of the trends.

Saturday marked the first day since Jan. 9 that hospitalizations fell below 1,000. The downward trend began on Jan. 18.

The county reported a dozen more COVID deaths Friday, hiking the cumulative death toll to 6,152 since the pandemic began. All of the fatalities logged Friday happened in January, raising last month’s death toll to 176.

The most recent recorded fatality occurred on Jan. 25. Six days of last month have not yet logged any COVID deaths.

Noymer said it is likely January’s death toll will surge past the worst of the Delta wave in August and September.

“We’ll probably have about 300 when all is said and done,”‘ Noymer said. “I don’t expect January deaths to stop coming in until March 1.”

Dr. Regina Chinsio-Kwong, the county’s deputy health officer, agreed in a call with reporters on Wednesday.

“There’s a good possibility of that,” Chinsio-Kwong said when asked if January’s death toll may exceed the worst of the summer surge. “Just because of the significant amount of positive cases over the last couple of weeks. The current variants may be milder, so even if the percentage may be lower, the sheer number of cases will be the same amount of deaths if not more than Delta. Proportionally, we expect it to be less, but the gross number will be the same or a little bit higher.”

Of the fatalities that occurred in December and January “the majority of folks who are dying during that period were older. We do have a couple of younger aged folks who did pass away and the majority of them are still unvaccinated.”

Jan. 11 has been the deadliest day so far last month with 14 fatalities. That tops the deadliest day during the summer surge by one, and the last time COVID deaths on one day approached that level was early March of last year. The deadliest day so far during the pandemic was Jan. 2, 2021, when 71 people succumbed to COVID-related causes.

December’s death toll stands at 102, with 112 in November and 135 in October.

September’s tally of COVID deaths stands at 198 and August’s death toll is 182.

In contrast, the death toll before the Delta variant fueled a late-summer surge was 31 in July, 19 in June, 26 in May, 47 in April, 202 in March and 620 for February. January 2021 remains the deadliest month of the pandemic, with a death toll of 1,598, ahead of December 2020, the next-deadliest with 985 people lost to the virus.

The OCHCA also reported 2,795 new positive COVID tests Friday, bringing the county’s cumulative total to 524,226.

Outbreaks — defined as three or more infected residents — decreased from 38 to 36 at assisted living facilities Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, the most recent data available, and dropped from 30 to 24 for skilled nursing facilities.

The county’s adjusted daily new case rate per 100,000 residents dipped from 109.2 Wednesday to 87.4 on Friday. The testing positivity rate dropped from 16.6% to 14.1%, and fell from 13.9% to 12.1% in the health equity quartile, which measures underserved communities hardest hit by the pandemic.

The case rate per 100,000 people decreased from 72.6 Jan. 22 to 38.5 on Jan. 29 for residents who were fully vaccinated with a booster shot; from 134.8 to 62 for fully vaccinated with no booster; and 207.2 to 92.9 for those not fully vaccinated.

The number of fully vaccinated residents in Orange County rose from 2,385,501 last week to 2,399,059, according to data released Thursday. That number includes an increase from  2,231,852 last week to 2,245,066 of residents who have received the two-dose regimen of vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna.

The number of residents receiving the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine increased from 153,649 to 153,993. Booster shots increased from 1,095,438 1,137,045.

In the relatively recently eligible age group of 5 to 11 years old, the number of children vaccinated increased from 62,239 last week to 67,784 versus 200,796, who have not been vaccinated. It’s the least vaccinated age group in Orange County. The next-worst vaccinated eligible age group is 25 to 34, with 319,730 inoculated and 139,671 who have not gotten a shot.