President Donald Trump waves as he walks off after speaking at a campaign rally at Orlando Sanford International Airport, Monday, Oct. 12, 2020, in Sanford, Fla. As the first Republican since 1988 to win any of the Rust Belts states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016, Donald Trump’s best route to reelection appears to be winning by a smaller Electoral College margin than last time around. He would need to retain at least one of those and hold serve on the more traditionally Republican states. But history shows that this is an unusual path. Presidents usually either expand their victory total in their reelection race, or fall to defeat. Only twice have they won reelection with fewer Electoral College votes than they received the first time around. The historical numbers tell the tale. Prior to this year, 26 presidents have sought and received their party’s nomination for re-election; 16 of them won. Of those 16, only two received fewer actual electoral votes in his re-election campaign and still managed to win re-election: Barack Obama and Woodrow Wilson. Only Obama, Wilson and James Madison did worse proportionally in their reelection campaigns. Wilson’s electoral numbers are skewed by the strange […]
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